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    Home » JPMorgan Strategists Drop Long Recommendation on Ruble as Ukraine Tensions Escalate
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    JPMorgan Strategists Drop Long Recommendation on Ruble as Ukraine Tensions Escalate

    January 26, 20221 Min Read
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    A view of Sir John Rogersons Quay in Dublin, Ireland. The offices of J P Morgan, Indeed and State Street among others are based here.
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    JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists have dismissed their earlier long recommendation on the Russian ruble, given the escalating tensions over Ukraine.

     

    • Strategists Anezka Christovova and Michael Harrison said the long recommendations have become “untenable” and that the negative scenarios cannot be dismissed with high confidence.

     

    • The ruble has declined by over 5% in January, forcing the central bank to stop regular foreign-currency buying for its wealth fund to prevent pressure on the local currency.

     

    • The strategists noted that data indicate that inflation may be peaking, but more evidence is needed as false signals were seen previously. A reduction in geopolitical uncertainty and clearer guidance on inflation is needed to boost bonds.

     

    The ruble is undervalued 13%, with 10-year local-currency sovereign bonds cheap by over 100 basis points.

    Source: Bloomberg

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