According to a survey conducted by The Wall Street Journal, U.S. crude oil inventories are anticipated to decline for the third consecutive week. Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stocks are expected to increase as refineries ramp up their production.
Crude Oil Stockpiles
Analysts and traders estimate that commercial crude oil stockpiles will decrease by 2.5 million barrels to 438.3 million barrels for the week ending on December 15th. The range of forecasts varies from a decline of 1 million barrels to 4.3 million barrels, with no predictions of an increase.
Gasoline Stocks
The survey suggests that gasoline stocks will likely rise by 700,000 barrels to reach 224.7 million barrels. Estimates for gasoline stocks range from a build of 2.5 million barrels to a draw of 2.6 million barrels.
Distillate Stocks
Stocks of distillates, primarily diesel fuel, are expected to increase by 700,000 barrels to a total of 114.2 million barrels. Forecasts for distillate stocks range from a 1.9 million-barrel increase to a 1.1 million-barrel withdrawal.
Refinery Capacity Use
Following an unexpected decline the previous week, refinery capacity use is projected to have increased by 0.2 percentage points to reach 90.4%. Estimates for refinery runs range from a 1 percentage point increase to a 0.4 percentage point decrease. Two analysts did not provide a forecast.
Crude | Gasoline | Distillates | Refinery Use —|—|—|— -2.6 | 1.7 | -1.1 | -0.4 -1.2 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 -3.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | unch -2.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 -4.3 | -0.7 | 0.4 | 0.3 -1.4 | -2.6 | 1.9 | n/f -2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 -1.0 | -1.0 | -1.0 | 1.0 -2.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | -0.2 -4.0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | n/f AVERAGE | -2.5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.2
Note: Numbers in millions of barrels, except for refinery use which is in percentage points.
n/f = no forecast
unch = unchanged
Conclusion
The U.S. Energy Information Administration will release the report on last week’s inventories on Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. EST.