China’s trade is expected to worsen in the second quarter, with its imports expecting an unexpected decline in March.
- Imports for the month recorded a 0.1% drop from the same month last year, reflecting the first contraction since August 2020. This compares with a 15.5% growth in the first two months of 2022.
- The contraction reflected a 14% decline in imports of crude oil, bringing gas import volumes to the lowest in five months since October 2020. Declines were also recorded in inbound shipments of copper due to the impact of outbreaks on manufacturing.
- Exports grew by 14.7% during the month, surpassing analyst expectations of 13%. This is still slower than the 16.3% increase recorded in the first two months of the year.
- Nomura analysts expect growth in dollar terms to slump 0.0% year-on-year in April, with imports seen to hit -3.0% due to the “severe disruptions” in factory operations and congestions in logistics.
MCHI is up 0.64%, while BABA is down 0.38% premarket.